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On Monday the 25th of February, trading on the EURUSD pair closed up, although there were plenty of fluctuations during the day. These were brought about by remarks from US President Donald Trump.

He increased the appetite for risk on the market with his decision to postpone increasing tariffs on Chinese imports. During the US session, oil prices dropped 4% in response to a Trump tweet saying that prices are too high and that OPEC should “relax”. This slump on oil took its toll on the USDCAD pair. The EURUSD pair continued trading within the 3-day consolidation range formed on the 20th of February.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 12:30 UK: BBA mortgage approvals (Jan).
• 13:00 UK: inflation report hearings.
• 16:30 US: building permits (Dec), housing starts (Dec).
• 17:00 US: housing price index (Dec).
• 17:45 US: Fed’s Powell speech.
• 18:00 US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Feb), consumer confidence.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Current situation:

The pair is trading between the 45th degrees as it remains in a sideways trend. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1348 and has reached the balance line. The market is in equilibrium on the hourly timeframe and is ready to push the rate to the U1 and D1 lines.

In my view, nothing has changed since yesterday from a technical standpoint. As such, I expect to see the bulls retreat to around 1.1315/20, where they will enter new long positions for the subsequent rally. The market is poised to break 1.1370, but it would be wise to expect the upwards wave to begin from the low from the 22nd of February. On the H4 timeframe, the LB line runs through 1.1322. As such we’ve got a strong support at around 1.1315/1.1322 on two separate timeframes.