EUR/USD Long In Progress

EUR/USD trade idea by

Long upper wick on yesterday’s EUR/USD candlestick was not confirmed today. The recovery is continued and the probability of upside breakout rises. The nearest important resistance level is 50.0% Fibo of-of September-November drop at 1.1515. We think that even stronger EUR/USD move is likely and have raised the target of our long position that had been opened at 1.1320. The new target is 1.1570.

EU reached a deal with Italy

The European Commission reached a deal with Italy over the country's 2019 budget that avoids an EU disciplinary procedure against Rome, Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said. He added the decision could be revised in January if Rome did not fully apply the agreement reached with Brussels. Under the compromise, Italy has lowered its headline deficit for next year to 2.04% of output from 2.4% it had planned earlier.

The more important structural deficit, however, which excludes one-off items and business cycle swings, will not change in 2019 from 2018 levels. Under EU rules, Rome was supposed to reduce the structural deficit by 0.6% of GDP, but instead proposed in its original 2019 draft budget an increase of 1.2% according to the Commission. The compromise at zero change was not ideal, Dombrovskis said, but allowed the Commission to drop plans to start disciplinary action that could end up in fines.

Slowdown in UK CPI

British consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.3% in November, the lowest since March 2017, in line with market consensus and down from 2.4% in October.

The biggest monthly fall in petrol prices in more than three years was the biggest driver of slower consumer price inflation, reflecting a sharp fall in the cost of a barrel of oil.

British consumers have been pressured by inflation since June 2016's Brexit referendum triggered a fall in sterling. A year ago, inflation peaked at a five-year high of 3.1%.

But despite the fall in inflation since, and a pick-up in headline wage growth to its highest in a decade, businesses have reported a downturn in consumer spending in recent months.

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