Mildly bullish above $1.0881, with ECB meeting today. Profitable short from $1.0872. Watch for trades at $1.0932, $1.0998, and $1.0881.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 5^th March produced a profitable short trade from the bearish reversal at $1.0872.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%.
• Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0932, $1.0998, or $1.1030.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0881, $1.0825, or $1.0790.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday, I wrote that price action had become marginally more bullish, so we were poised eventually for a bullish breakout beyond $1.0872, but I thought this was very unlikely to happen today.

I saw the best approach as a long scalp from $1.0825 if reached, or a short scalp from $1.0872 if reached.

This was a good, accurate, and profitable call.

The technical picture has become more bullish, as the price has finally broken above the resistance around $1.0872 and seems to have become established there. This is mainly due to renewed weakness in the US Dollar than any strength in the Euro.

As we have some minor bullish momentum, I see a long trade from any bullish bounce at the support level of $1.0881 as the best bet today.

Beware of the ECB meeting as this could cause volatility which does not respect technical factors if there are any surprises.

Concerning the EUR, the European Central Bank will be releasing its Main Refinancing Rate and Rate Statement at 1:15pm London time or the USD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm followed by Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at 3pm.

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