The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend after peaking at 1.1280 in July. 

Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0900.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.1012.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0990 and a take-profit at 1.1025.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0925.

The EUR/USD pair retreated to an important support level as the US dollar strength continued. The pair retreated to the important support at 1.0945 even after the relatively weak US manufacturing PMI numbers.

US dollar strength continues

The EUR/USD pair retreated even after the relatively weak economic numbers from the United States. A report by the Institute of Supply Management showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 46 in June to 46.4 in July. That increase was lower than the median estimate of 46.8.

A PMI reading of less than 50 is a sign that an industry is contracting. A separate report by S&P Global showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.3 in June to 49.0 in July, in line with expectations.

These numbers mean that America’s manufacturing is still contracting even after the recent investments by the government such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the $1 trillion infrastructure project.

Another report revealed that the number of job openings in the US declined to the lowest level in two years. The closely watched JOLTS job openings revealed that the number of openings fell to 9.56 million in June from the previous 9.61 million.

ADP will publish the latest private non-farm payrolls (NFP) data later on Wednesday. Economists are a bit cautious as they expect the private sector added 188k jobs in July. Its previous report showed that the NFPs rose by 540k in June while the official report put the number at 209k.

The EUR/USD also dropped after data showed that the euro area’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.4% in June, the lowest level on record. The report was better than the median estimate of 6.5%. Still, it is unclear whether the report will have an impact on the European Central Bank.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend after peaking at 1.1280 in July. It moved below the important support levels at 1.1093 (April 26 high) and 1.1012 (June 22nd high. The pair has moved below the 25-period and 50-period exponential moving averages and is slightly above the 50% retracement level.

The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 1.0900. This view will be confirmed if it moves below the key support at 1.0941.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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