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EUR/USD holds firm on Thursday after an outstanding jobs report in the United States (US), hinting that the labor market remains solid, despite softening during the second half of 2025. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1533.

Euro holds firm despite upbeat US jobs data, investors increased expectations for a December cut

The reopening of the US government keeps economic data flowing, despite being delayed, as the September Nonfarm Payrolls, which should’ve been released on the first Friday of October, crushed the forecasts. Despite this, not everything was good news as the Unemployment Rate ticked higher but remained within the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest projections.

After the data, investors increased bets that the Fed could reduce borrowing costs at the December meeting, from 29% to 39%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Federal Reserve officials had crossed the wires. The hawkish leaning were Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Michael Barr. The latest surprised the markets, saying that he is worried that inflation is still at 3%.

In the Eurozone, Consumer Confidence printed -14.2 in November, the same as in October, which was the highest level since February. Germany revealed that producer prices were mostly aligned with forecasts, though they had a limited impact on the Euro.

Daily market movers: Strong NFP data, caps Euro's recovery

• US Nonfarm Payrolls in September rose by 119K, well above the 50K expected and a sharp rebound from August’s –4K print. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, though it remained below the Federal Reserve’s 2025 projection of 4.5% outlined in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
• The Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 fell to 220K — the lowest level since September — signaling that the labor market, while softening, continues to show underlying stability.
• Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee said that inflation at 3% is too high and appears to have stalled. He added that he’s “uneasy frontloading too many rate cuts.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned that easing monetary policy at this stage could encourage excessive financial risk-taking. She warned that “cutting rates risks prolonging high inflation,” and added that current financial conditions remain “quite accommodative.”
• Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr adopted a hawkish tone, saying he remains concerned that inflation is still running around 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.10% at 100.22, capping the Euro’s advance.

Technical Outlook: Euro's downtrend stalls, remains bearish

EUR/USD is snapping a four-day losing streak, yet it remains below the 1.1550 print, a crucial level ahead of stir resistance at the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.1646/54. A breach of those three levels clears the path to challenge 1.1700.

Despite this, momentum is bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). That said, the EUR/USD path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.

Key support lies at the 1.1500 mark, followed by the November 5 swing low of 1.1468. A decisive break will expose the 200-day SMA at 1.1395.

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD daily chart

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