EUR/USD Churns After A Week Of Directionless Weight-Shifting
EUR/USD finished off a sedate trading week close to where it began, trading within a tight range of slightly more than 1%. Fiber tried to spark a fresh bid back above the 1.1000 handle on Monday, but price spent the rest of the week easing back into familiar technical levels.
Coming up next week, investors will get a fresh batch of inflation data to worry about, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation on the cards for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. US Retail Sales and another update from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey Index are also due later next week. Core PPI inflation and headline CPI inflation are both still stuck around 3% YoY, and investors will be hoping for a continued easing in the prints to keep the Fed on the rails toward rate cuts.
Preliminary pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures are due next week at the Wednesday hump. Median market forecasts are expecting EU growth to hold steady at current levels, with forecasts matching the previous prints of 0.3% and 0.6% on the QoQ and YoY timeframes, respectively.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | 0.34% | 0.01% | -1.01% | -0.96% | -0.77% | 0.82% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.32% | -0.08% | -1.11% | -0.87% | -0.82% | 0.75% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.34% | -1.37% | -1.17% | -1.12% | 0.42% | |
| JPY | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.34% | -0.99% | -0.96% | -0.82% | 0.82% | |
| CAD | 1.01% | 1.11% | 1.37% | 0.99% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 1.68% | |
| AUD | 0.96% | 0.87% | 1.17% | 0.96% | -0.10% | 0.04% | 1.60% | |
| NZD | 0.77% | 0.82% | 1.12% | 0.82% | -0.24% | -0.04% | 1.56% | |
| CHF | -0.82% | -0.75% | -0.42% | -0.82% | -1.68% | -1.60% | -1.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/USD price forecast
Fiber continues to trade on the high side of a rough descending channel that has weighed on EUR/USD for the duration of 2024. The pair is holding just outside of recent technical ceiling barriers, but bullish momentum remains crimped below 1.1000.
A rising pattern of higher lows is solidifying on daily candlesticks, but EUR/USD is still poised for another dip back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0800 if bidders don’t return to the fold and get EUR/USD bolstered into fresh near-term highs.
EUR/USD daily chart
(Click on image to enlarge)
Market focus remains squarely on the odds of a September rate cut. Rate markets have fully priced in the start of a rate cutting cycle when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18, but bets of an initial double cut for 50 basis points have eased to slightly-better-than-even from nearly 70% earlier this week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in 53.5% odds of a 50 bps cut in September, with an additional two cuts worth 25 basis points apiece through the remainder of 2024.
More By This Author:
EUR/USD Cycles Near 1.0900 As Fiber Traders Tread WaterEUR/USD Pulls Into The Middle Just Above 1.0900
GBP/USD Struggles To Find Gains As Markets Chew On Rate Cut Expectations
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