Energy Ideas For Contrarians

Many investors won’t touch Energy with a ten-foot pole and that’s understandable. Oil prices are down and we’re constantly hearing reports of too much supply, which is being exacerbated by the activities of politically motivated rather than commercially oriented producers. Still any time a group gets pounded, there are contrarians wondering if and when they should pounce. After all, nothing is forever and trends tend to turn when conventional wisdom least expects.

What’s Ahead for Oil Prices?

Darned if I know. I’m not the one to ask about this. Seriously. I’ve been dead wrong about oil so often, quants might study me and conclude I’m a statistically significant contrary indicator. (But at least I admit it!)

So please, please, please, do not even think of initiating or adding to energy positions because you interpret something I say as being bullish.

But If You Really Want to Play Oil . . .

There’s something I can offer that’s in my wheel house that may help; an approach for picking and choosing among stocks in sector in an effort to find some that can offer better upside and less downside whatever the future of oil prices.

No, I don’t spend my life touring the world’s oilfields checking on who is doing what, who has the best reserves (however that may be defined nowadays), who is adding to reserves most efficiently (Is that still a good thing?), who is in what country, etc. I’m sure, however, that the trade media and high-priced consultants can amply address issues like that.

I’m into good old plain vanilla fundamental and sentiment investment metrics. Financial data! The stuff you see all the time on web sites, ion corporate fillings, in earnings releases, etc. STOP! DON’T CLICK THAT MOUSE!!!

I know you want to exit this post. I know you’re likely muttering “What a ripoff. He dangles an idea and comes up with nothing more than the same old boring nonsense. I want something REAL!”

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Disclosure: None.

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