Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 29 And Aug. 5
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of July 29 |
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July 29 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
-6.0 |
-12.1 |
||
July 30 |
||||
Personal Income - June |
0.3% |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.6% |
0.8 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
Consumer Confidence - July |
126.5 |
121.5 |
125.0 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - June |
105.0 |
105.4 |
105.3 |
|
July 31 |
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ADP Employment Report - July |
160K |
102 |
155 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Q2 |
0.7% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.9 |
2.8 |
||
Chicago PMI - July |
51.0 |
49.7 |
50.7 |
|
FMOC |
2.125% |
2.375 |
2.125 |
|
August 1 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
212K |
206 |
213 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - July |
52.3 |
51.7 |
51.9 |
|
Construction Spending - June |
0.3% |
-0.8 |
0.4 |
|
August 2 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - July |
160K |
224 |
156 |
|
Private |
150 |
191 |
154 |
|
Manufacturing |
7 |
17 |
6 |
|
Unemployment |
3.6% |
3.7 |
3.6 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
International Trade - June |
-$54.6B |
-55.5 |
-54.7 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r) |
98.4 |
98.4 |
98.4 |
|
Factory Orders - June |
1.0% |
-0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
2.0 |
-1.3 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
||
Week of August 5 |
||||
August 5 |
||||
PMI Services Index |
52.2 |
52.2 |
||
ISM Services - July |
55.6 |
55.1 |
||
August 6 |
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JOLTS - June |
7.3250M |
7.372 |
||
August 7 |
||||
Consumer Credit - June |
17.0B |
17.1 |
||
August 8 |
||||
Wholesale Inventories - June |
0.2% |
0.2 |
||
Wholesale Sales |
||||
August 9 |
||||
Producer Price Index - July |
0.2% |
0.1 |
||
PPI less food energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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