Economic Data As A Weapon In The Economic War Between Developed Countries. This Is A Shame

Economic data analysis is a hobby rather than a duty. My professional occupation is geophysics with an emphasis on the effects of nuclear explosions in three media – solid earth, underwater, and atmosphere. After the Comprehensive Nuclear-test-ban Treaty was signed, my interests and activity have been focused on monitoring nuclear explosions at a global level. The essence of monitoring is not to miss the event of interest (e.g. the DPRK tests) in the intensive flux of similar events (e.g. hundreds of earthquakes per day). Such a requirement creates professional deformation related to data quality and consistency. The CTBTO uses only authenticated and quality checked data obtained by the International Monitoring System. In routine data processing carried out by the International Data Centre for the State Parties of the CTBTO, it is not allowed to use unauthenticated national or international data. In economic data, I found an extremely strong argument against the use of data provided by developed countries in any independent activity (Technical Secretariat of the CTBTO is supposed to be an independent actor as well as other UN-related organizations in economic data published by several “independent” sources). In case the countries controlling these sources or any other country will provide data to the CTBTO or like organizations it should be denied. This data is highly likely biased in favor of the providers.

We have been studying statistical links between various economic parameters since 2003. In December 2020, the COVID-19 limitation to remote work was a good argument in favor of revisiting all studies conducted before 2013 and validation of the models by adding new data between 2010 and 2020. The most recent set of posts in this blog was associated with models similar to Okun’s law. The modification used in our approach is just conversion of the link between the rate of unemployment and real GDP per capita (as the measure of output gap) into a differential form. Then the integral change in the unemployment rate is predicted by the GDP per capita growth.

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