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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August,

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.88 million in August, down 1.8% from July’s preliminary pace and down 3.7% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a slightly larger YOY % decline, as there was one fewer business day this August compared to last August.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the existing single-family home sales price last month was up 3.5% from last August.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August Existing Home Sales on Thursday, September 19th at 10 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.85 million SAAR, down from 3.95 million in July.

Mortgage Rates for Top-Tier Borrowers Fall Below 6% for First Time Since Early February of 2023

The Optimal Blue 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Index for borrowers with a FICO score above 740 and an LTV greater than 80% fell to 5.966% on Friday, the first time this index was below 6% since February 3, 2023. The Optimal Blue Indexes are based on actual rate-lock activity.

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