E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market Analysis

Yesterday I missed to post my market analysis on the E-mini S&P 500 (ES contract) but here we go now. Well, the Fed news did not play into my overall game plan in any market I am trading currently but my risk management preserved any damage. I will adjust the plan accordingly to the small changes in the market context. With that said, let’s dig into the ES contract.

Looking at the macro perspective, we are one-time-framing higher (since several years) to one record high to the next all-time high. There is not much more to mention about this. I will throw in a Quarterly chart at this point:

Moving forward quickly to the daily chart, we can observe Tuesday’s inside day and yesterday’s outside bar which taken out Monday’s high and low as well. This little information about an outside bar indicates for me that a possible change in the context could occur. The market was trending higher numerous days and I expect to see some balanced behavior or a change in trend to lower levels because of the mentioned outside the bar.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The volume profiles are more interesting to analyze right now. With a closer look, we can identify the previous P-shaped weekly volume profile. The acceptance area in this shape is in the upper area of the previous week’s range. The VPOC was the key level this week as the market tested that level in yesterday’s turmoil to the tick. Actually, not exactly to the tick but the market rejected the acceptance area in other words pretty well. The current week’s profile is P-shaped and the market does trading below the VPOC. The area is attractive for shorts if we can find any confluent levels on the VWAP chart in my opinion.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Now then, let’s take a look at the VWAP chart. Yesterday a previous VWAP close level was confluent with the mentioned VPOC area. The market tested and rejected it to the tick. Yesterday’s VAH close level and a previous VAH close level are areas of interest for me currently. The market opened inside of value and I expect a rotation to yesterday’s VAL close level. The developing VAH level could be a good candidate for a potential short trade in my humble opinion.

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