Dow Theory Favors Higher Stock Prices

Yesterday was rough for stocks. New 52-week lows perked up to a level that indicates selling pressure. That isn't what we want to see on a down day in the market. On a down day in an uptrend, we want to see healthy internals despite lower prices for the major indexes.

Things are looking better today. There are still a few hours left of trading. New lows have calmed down again, and the other short-term indicators are looking favorable.

Here are the charts. The bullish percents are pointing higher.

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The VIX is below the 16-level which means it is in the range where an uptrend will generally occur.

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The 10Y yield broke out yesterday and we saw the short-term bearish impact on stock prices. Now we watch the 30Y. Stocks probably won't like it if this yield spikes higher. 

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The Medium-Term Trend

I like this old-fashioned market timing method. Dow Theory favors higher stock prices.

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The NYSE Advance/Decline and Up/Down Volume lines are pushing up to new highs. Market breadth continues to favor higher stock prices.

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As mentioned earlier, working against stock prices are long-duration Treasury rates (bond yields up, bond prices down).
As bond prices fall, I would expect stock prices to struggle as well. The price-pattern in this bond ETF is somewhat similar to the pattern showing up in the Semiconductors.

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I think the bull market needs leadership from Semiconductors, and I worry that higher rates will undermine the uptrend.

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Bottom line: If bond prices move significantly lower then I think it is likely that the Semiconductors will point lower too, and this works against stock prices.

Outlook Summary:

The market is looking good right now, but I am nervous about the insane Federal deficits and the negative impact of higher yields on stock prices.

I am also nervous about the headlines swirling around the White House. The news keeps getting worse, and it just seems like a matter of time before one of these headlines gets close to the man at the top.

The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10
The short-term trend is up as of May-7

The medium-term trend for bond prices is down.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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