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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) withered on Tuesday, shedding another 120 points in a second straight soft day. Rate-cut-hungry markets hunker down for the wait to this week’s hotly anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut and update to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Fed rate call remains in the crosshairs

Investors remain focused almost entirely on the Fed's December 10 interest rate decision, widely expected to deliver a third consecutive quarter-point cut. The S&P 500 (SP500) rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%, while the Dow slipped slightly, falling 0.35%. Fed funds futures now imply an ~87% chance of a cut, up sharply from a month ago. Traders say the outcome of the Fed’s latest rate call, and especially Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s during one of his last rate call press conferences, could set the tone for the remainder of December as markets weigh sticky inflation, delayed economic data, and the long runway toward new Fed leadership in 2026.

Behind the immediate rate decision, analysts say markets are already starting to look toward the next phase of Fed leadership and potential changes in communication strategy after a year of volatile expectations. With the Fed’s dual mandate still challenged by uneven inflation and cooling labor dynamics, investors are watching closely to see whether policymakers can maintain an accommodative stance in 2026 or if economic conditions force a more cautious approach.

Rate-sensitive stocks gain ground on rate cut hopes

Momentum was strongest in rate-sensitive pockets of the market. The Russell 2000 hit a fresh intraday record as lower borrowing costs are seen benefiting small caps. Silver miners also surged after Silver futures touched a record high above $61 per ounce. Meanwhile, earnings and sector-specific news added pockets of strength: CVS climbed on a stronger profit outlook, and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) gained after an analyst upgrade. 

Broader macro data painted a mixed picture: JOLTS job openings held steady through both September and October, but the pace of both hiring and quits slowed heading into the fourth quarter. Small business inflation concerns also spiked to their highest level since early 2023 as tariffs continue to eat away at the underside of the US economy.

Dow Jones daily chart

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