Dow Jones Cycle Update And Are We There Yet?

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all-time highs. However, all long and strong bull markets end on a new all-time high. Today no one knows how many new all-time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet? dow-jones-cycle-update-and-are-we-there-yet combines market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst, and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 

CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900-period cycle.

A) Red Cycle: The 900-period cycle (or 880) is the dominant cycle in the Dow Jones. 

B) Notice how the cycle low 1,2,3 and hash [#] is timed with market recession (in order): 1982, 1991, 2001, 2008 (out of sync). The last has a recession forecast for late 2020 or 2021 [a maybe].

C) CAUSE 1, CAUSE 2 and CAUSE 3 are the normal stepping stones of Richard Wyckoff cause and effect logic. Very typical price action: market rallies, consolidation, rallies, consolidation, you guess it, it rallies. Of course, if a rally does not follow a consolidation then the 'cause and effect' confidence trend is broken. So far this has not happened. This is why one can not be bearish to any strong degree, the bullish status quo continues.

D) RTT Momentum reflects price momentum relative to the cycle. The current position of momentum is elevated and bullish.

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Dow Cycle

CHART 2: Below is the Richard Wyckoff Point and Figure 1 to 3 risk reward forecast.

A) As the above, Dow Jones cycle suggest markets are still bullish and CAUSE 3 forecast suggest the SP500 can reach at least 3,400
B) And why not, price has done this twice before.

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SP500 PnF Forecast

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