Unleashing the dogs of war has led to commodity price rises, not just for the most-watched oil prices, but also for copper, palladium, platinum, and the barbaric relic, gold, along with non-relic bitcoin. It also appears to have convinced John Bolton, a former national security advisor fired and humiliated by President Trump, to agree to testify about Ukraine and other matters before the US Senate if subpoenaed. During the House investigation, he followed the White House directive not to testify but now appears to be ready to deliver the goods to the Senate. More for paid subscribers below.

Latina shares

*Copper miner Antofagasta duly rose 1.5% yesterday in London where it is listed. ANFGF here.

*Mexican bakery multinational Grupo Bimbo rose 7.7% yesterday after it bought Lender's bagels from Conagra along with a Mattoon (Illinois) bagel plant. The price was not released. GRBMF already owns US marques Sara Lee, Arnold, Entenmann's, and Thomas' English muffins and operates under the radar in many countries worldwide where it sells cookies, pizza, tortillas, pita, cakes, snacks. It is ignored by US analysts and may soon begin offering vegan products like its British rival Gregg's.

*Orbia Advance Corp (formerly Mexichem, MXCHF) maker of poly-vinyl chloride drip-feed agricultural systems and water pipes plans a US listing later this year or early next year and is controlled and managed by the Del Valle family. It does more business in the US than in Mexico, 20% of sales vs 9% but is still treated as a Mexican risk. But today a Mexican risk is a good thing and the stock is up.

*Mexican Equity & Income Fund is also up to nearly $12... I learned about Mexican multinationals from its Marilu Pichardo.

*SoQuiMich of Chile is up 0.9% to a new 2020 high at $26.95. It mines potash.

Cars and scooters

*Nio Inc of China, which was found for us by Austrian eco-investment specialist Max Deml, was up another 11% yesterday after its December vehicle sales levels rose over 25% sequentially from November, led by the ES7 and ES8. It closed 2019 having delivered 20,563 electric cars. We were lured into NIO because of its own electric scooter production line, but it turns out that SUVs and cars, whose production it outsources, are the growth. Despite soft auto sales, NIO boosted its deliveries for each of the last 5 months according to NIO CEO William Bin Li. It uses its owners to get others to visit its NIO Spaces where they can sign up not just for vehicles but also for instant battery replacement during long drives. In Dec., it added the premium 5-passenger electric coupe SUV EC6 expected to be another winner in the current year. We bought last month at $2.37 (in two batches.) Unlike Tesla, NIO is nowhere near its high but is also gaining market share as gas guzzlers fail to sell. Its shares are not widely shorted like those of Tesla.

It did fall Friday by as much as 6% after a huge rally but now is back in the black.

*Air India is discontinuing its link to travel agencies via the Sabre system which may herald difficulty for MakeMyTrip, MMYT. The NY Times reported that Indian hotel booking firm Oyo, a Softbank investment, has been listing rooms at unavailable or unlicensed hotels and guesthouses, and they bribing police by giving them free nights to avoid punishment. It also held back on what it was required to pay to hotels for past stays by its customers. Oyo is considered a prise in the Softbank “Vision Fund.” MMYT is down 1.75%. We await an update from India reporter Abhimanyu Sisodia.

*Canadian CAE Inc is up 2.7% near a 12-mo high, as news came out that the Boeing 737 Max will have further tail cable stability issues pilots will have to be trained for, as well as hints that military aviation will also need new hires. It was recommended by Patti the Biotech Maven, mother of a pilot.

Pharma

*Reuters yesterday ran an article about anti-body drug conjugates (ADCs) which kill cancer cells with a much higher dose of poison than other drugs. The biggest one currently on the market is Kadcyla for breast cancer from Swiss Roche, RHHBY, with $1 bn in annual sales because it beats results with another Roche drug, Herceptin in some patients. Roche also last year got another ADC approval for lymphoma drug Polivy. Astra-Zeneca and Daiichi Sankyo got okays for another breast cancer drug, Enhertu. These work in some cases where other chemotherapy fails. Still to come is a multiple myeloma ADC from GlaxoSmithKline, belantamab mafodotin. Also to hit the market soon is Astellas and Seattle Generics' bladder cancer ADC, Padcev, which produced complete responses in 44% of patients who had failed immunotherapy with other drugs.

*Bausch Health Companies yesterday announced an expanded US launch of astigmatism daily disposable contact lenses under its Bausch & Lomb brand for 60% more patients for whom they can be prescribed, and the BHC stock crashed nearly 2% in response. It is harder to fit contact lenses for people with astigmatism, one reason I wear specs.

*Citigroup upgraded Bristol-Myers Squibb to buy with a $73 target price, a 16% jump from BMY current level. I own the BMY stock inherited from my last mother.

*The FDA approved fast-acting mealtime insulin Fiasp for children with diabetes 1. It was approved for adults in 2017 using pumps. The drug is made by Danish Novo Nordisk, NVO, and insulin specialist.

*A settlement has been reached over Linzess (linaclotide) which will allow Novartis sub-Sandoz to market a version of the constipation drug in Feb. 2030, a long time to wait. The patent infringement suit was brought by Allergan and Ironwood Pharma. AGN has been settling patent disputes so far this year rather than continuing the litigation.

Banksters

*Yesterday Bank of Nova Scotia goes ex-dividend for the $0.684, dividend to be paid today. BNS is the creator of various institutional hedge funds covering major markets to cut the volatility risk. I used to fear this but as the prime operator of such funds, it covers itself both against rises and falls. It is a good stock to use to cover global risks in any event, as it is the largest Canadian bank investor in countries other than the USA. It recently chopped its US$ exposure further by exiting its Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands banks, sold to Oriental Bank.

Energy

*Wells Fargo upgraded BP plc to overweight from neutral, with no target price. It also cut Royal Dutch Shell B (RDS-B) to equal-weight from overweight. BP removed US nationals from its Rumalia near Basra in southern Iraq.

*Vermilion Energy, VET of Canada, was up 2% yesterday in part because short-sellers were caught by the oil price rise. It will report on earnings Feb. 27 but before that take part in the EnerCom do in Dallas Feb. 11-2. It yielded 12.88% last year but that is unlikely to repeat. It operates not only in Canada and the USA but also in France, Germany, Ireland, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, The Netherlands, and Australia producing both oil and gas.

*Israeli oil company Delek Group shares rose 5.12% yesterday to $17.87 on its 6^th day of delivering natural gas from its offshore Israel Leviathan field to Israel and Jordan, because the curse of low oil prices now that the Jewish state finally has found hydrocarbons has lifted thanks to Pres. Trump and its buy of Chevron North Sea oilfields no longer looks so stupid. Its Q3 revenues were flat and its earnings missed and fell by a quarter from prior year. It expects to add 2 more gas wells in the next few days. It also offloaded its stake in Tamar, an older gasfield it was required to divest on anti-trust grounds, to several Israeli teachers' retirement plans for the equivalent of $46.2 mn.

*Its US Leviathan partner Noble Energy of Texas, now NBL on the Big Board, fell yesterday however although it was up at the opening. They also will operate a pipeline from Cyprus to Italy which Turkey says violates its sovereignty.

*Bonus stock Ormat, Israeli-owned but the US incorporated, a producer of geothermal energy, yesterday via a sub signed a contract to supply Hawaii Electric Light with power from its Puna complex on Big Island which has been shut-in since the nearby Kilauea volcanic eruption in May 2018. The new contract will sell 46 mWatts of capacity from now to 2052 at a fixed price of $70mW/hour, with no escalation. It is subject to review by the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission expected this year. ORA will replace old steam units with new ones and upgrade ancillary equipment. This will increase output by 8 mW from the prior system to 52 mW from the same site with much lower costs from the 25-year-old earlier geothermal site. The new plant is expected to go live in 2022 but in the meantime, the existing link of HEL and ORA will be in effect and the old site is due to be repaired in H2 this year.

Tech and Tel

*Raymond James upped Nokia to strong buy from outperform. NOK stock rose 3.9% yesterday thanks to Finnish neutrality.

*Naspers, the South African group which owns 31% of Tencent, rose 64% yesterday to just under $33. Its spun-off Prosus (PROSY) in Amsterdam rose only 1.1%.

Funds

*Underperforming Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund declared a first 2020 monthly dividend of 6¢/sh payable to holders as of Jan. 15 on Jan. 31. The TEI yield is now 9.4% and the share is inching up.

*Swedish Investor A/B is up 0.9% on the fact that Sweden is also considered a neutral country.

*Gold is up some more and hit a new7-yr high before falling back. A new idea has gripped investors looking for inflation protection: buying TIPS. We again recommend that you buy SPDR TIPS ETF (SPIP) which was trading around $28.75-28.77 yesterday, down from Friday. I never sold it being an inflation-nut. It used to be called Barclays TIPS ETF.