Disunited Kingdom

Global markets are in convulsion after the surprisingly strong UK vote to leave the European Union. Wall Street shares opened down 2-4 percent, while markets in the Disunited Kingdom went into free-fall, down nearly 9%. The Euro stoxx 50 index dropped by double digits before recovering.

Sterling at one point hit a 30-year low down 11% to $1.3224 but there were plenty of fluctuations back up again subsequently. Seeking shelter, investors bought UK bonds, pushing interest rates down to 1.02%, vs 1.37% yesterday. US Treasury bonds also jumped slashing the yield on the 10-year note to 2.47% from 1.67$ yesterday. German 10-year bunds fell to a new low of minus 0.18% overnight. Hardest hit were banks which have to deal with the chaos which followed the referendum results and the London Stock Exchange's own shares, down over 12% on deal uncertainty on the planned merger of the London and German stock exchange. Also hard hit were bookies which had been offering good payoffs for Brexit based on misleading recent polls.

Will Britons take to drink to solace themselves for a bad outcome and to celebrate a good one? The pub indicator was confused. Fuller was up 2.5% while Wetherspoon (JDWPY) fell 7%.

The politics were also dreadful. PM David Cameron resigned. Scottish nationalists demanded another referendum to let them vote themselves out of the United Kingdom since Scotland had voted overwhelmingly for “bremain”. Sinn Fein in Ireland demanded that Northern Ireland be reunified with the Irish Republic which is in the EU. Spain demanded sovereignty over Gibraltar.

Right-wing parties in France, Poland, Hungary, and the Netherlands, demanded referendums on Frexit, Polexit, Hexit, and Nexit. The Brexit vote provides ammunition for isolationist (and often anti-Semitic and anti-Mjuslim) campaigns and candidates across Europe. This could be the start of the whole EU imploding over broader social issues.

As a politician with funny blond hair, Boris Johnson, who led the Conservative anti-EU block which won the referendum prepares to demand the premiership, another pol with funny blond hair, Donald Trump, is also likely to gain from echoes of a vote that was largely anti-foreigner.

Mudchute Manor, from which I am writing, and the broader London property market will be impacted. Rumbling already some of the largest tenants in Canary Wharf (JP MorganMorgan StanleySkadden, Arps) are preparing to move personnel out of London. East London revitalization has been built on the backs of the financial industry; that sector is now entering a structural retrenching.

A weaker Europe will refocus concerns on broader financial imbalances and non-performing loans on periphery banks' books (Portugal, Italy, Spain, and of course Greece.)

Jeffrey Corbyn, the Labour Party leader, who also supported Bremain may also not survive the debacle. Like Bernie Sanders, he is from the most leftish part of his party.

What do do now, you may well ask? To quote Dwight Eisenhower, “Don't do anything. Just stand there.” More for paid subscribers follows from Britain, Ireland, India, Brazil, Colombia, Jordan, Israel, Hong Kong, Canada, Finland, Costa Rica, Spain, and Panama.

*If you absolutely must buy something before nightfall today, think British multinationals. Their shares are down largely because of currency factors (their main market is in sterling and their ADRs track London prices.

GlaxoSmithkine, GSK, rose 17.5 pence (13%) in the selloff, because it is an obvious global player. Its ADR opened at $42. BAE Systems, BAESY, however, fell 12.5 pence (2.5%) although its links with Europe and beyond will survive, as it is in the business of supplying the military.

*Reckitt Benckiser, RBGLY, rose 28 pence (4.2% but later was only up 2.6%) as a global player, while Hikma Pharma, a Jordanian company active in the Middle East and North Africa fell 12 pence (3%). Irish cement and aggregates firm CRH dropped like a cement shoe, off 72 pence (3.7%) while Shire, another Irish firm traded in London, gained 5 pence (0.6%) . These prices are subject to change of course. Alkermes (ALKS)also Irish, also in drugs, however fell 2.6% but did rise 1.65% yesterday when market were in risk-on mode.

*While gold was up 8.7% and gold miners were also buoyant, Johnson Matthey, admittedly ex-dividend, fell by 3.4%. It is a refiner of precious metals, and should be tracking them. JMPLY is the ADR.

By-Blows

*Nokia of Finland dropped an astonishing 16% today in London trading. The main reason is probably that Brazil's Oi, which went bankrupt on Monday, owes $150 mn to telecom equipment suppliers, probably including NOK.

*Emerging market risk-off sentiment was high over Brazil. Vale (VALE) fell 8.9% before recovering to be down only 6.3%. Cosan, CZZ, fell by a similar percentage.

*Abhimanyu Sisodia writes from India about repercussions there: Tata Motors (TTM) was the worst performer on the index today, slumping 7.9% (recovering from an opeing decline of 11%). TTM's revenue driver (pun intended) Jaguar Land Rover derives 25% of its profits from Europe and 20% from the UK. It estimates it will lose £1 bn to pay 4% UK import duties for European components and 10% dutyto sell its UK-make cars on the continent. Longer term, sterling decline will help sales to China and the US but JLR products will be less competitive in Europe. And of course more assembly will be done in India and Slovakia.

*In Asia too Tencent (TCEHY) fell 2.6% in sympathy with Hong Kong's former masters.

*Despite the historic peace deal with the FARC and oil rising to nearly $52/bbl yesterday, Colombian Ecopetrol (EC) fell 5.4% today. This is the ultimate screaming bargain out there.

*SPDR Gold, our disaster-recovery play, rose to over $126/sh on Wall Street, at a discount from the London bullion price which topped $1300/oz. You can buy gold at a discount if you are British and have dollars.

*Royal Bank of Scotland common shares are down 22.8% on Wall St. a matter of days since the bank opted to repay owners of its US dollar-denominated preferreds, who include us. The cost to RBS has soared. Barclays (BCS) common is off 21% although it did not call as many prefs.

*Santander (SAN), a more diversified global bank is also down 21%.

Now some other non-Brexit news.

*Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio (BLX) yesterday successfully co-let a syndication for a 3-yr unsecured amortizing notes for Banco BAC of San Jose, Costa Rica.

*Quebec will extend its agreement with Quebec-based CAE until 2020. This established an R&D program now estimated at a value of C$192.3 mn for developing new technologies and services in healthcare simulation and training.

*Reports that Belarus may agree to cooperate with Russian potash producer Uralkali for the first time since a dispute ended the alliance between the world's two biggest potash producers has boosted fertilizer stock but they are down today regardless. The current fall in plant food shares was triggered by the Uralkali dispute three years ago. Our horse in this race in Agrium in Canada. AGU is ex-dividend and off 3.5%, another possible buy.

*Teva Pharma announced the European Union CHMP issued a positive opinion recommending marketing authorization for Cinquaero, on which a final decision will come in H2. This is a humanized interleukin 5 antagonist monoclonal antibody for add-on therapy in adult patients with severe eosinophilic asthma inadequately controlled despite high-dose inhaled corticosteroids plus another medicinal product. Note that if Britain leaves the EU before H2, TEVA will have to get a separate agreement for marketing the drug in the UK.

Disclosure: None.

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