Dissecting The Dow For General Market Direction: MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT And NKE
After review (Dissecting) of the Dow 30 component Companies, these five Companies are among those that contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is continuing to deteriorate. Yes, there are rallies and pull-backs, but this stalwart Indicator, along with my S&P 1,500 Composite Index continues, to show deterioration. The topping process for a multi-year bull market is always a slow one. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework / analytics each day over the years helps more than you might think.
Forecasting the General Market for me is fun. I use my Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology along with the 30 Dow Industrial Component Companies and their respective Industry Groups. I use the same procedures with several broader based indices for verification and comparative analytics. With a brief narrative and rather simple graphics / charts, I will attempt to share how I go about getting consistently positive asset management results.
My most current monthly composite article with a table for all 30 of the Dow Companies can be read here.
My Unique Dow Chart w/ Commodities and My I. P. Counts
I update the above Graphic / Chart every Saturday morning.
Percent Chart for Perspective
Combining my Fundamental Valuations with my unique Technical Analysis always provides a clear perspective of the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles (Favorable) and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles (Un-Favorable). The "Also Rans", which are to be avoided, are also spelled out quite clearly.
How come four of these companies are up 30% to 50% and McDonalds is flat? There are clear calculable reasons that tell that story well ahead of taking positions if you use these tools and a few others every day.
Market Status with a Dow 30 Industrials Focus
The Dow 30 Industrials is an excellent bellwether of the direction of the General Market. I hope you will find through my flow of articles, as I have over many years, that my use of these 30 Companies tells us all the direction of the Marketplace – very, very well. It just takes a lot of work.
In my opinion, the fundamentals are over-valued, the technicals are over-bought, and the consensus opinion is way too bullish. Economic and financial news, on balance, is negative and not supportive of taking any Bullish positions. There are, of course, exceptions.
I am currently turning Bearish because my Fundamental Valuations have been deteriorating for quite some time, and my Technical Indicators are breaking down weekly. It's just that simple!
Supporting Articles for this Week's Five Companies
Here are links to my archives for this week's focus group: MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE.
Table of the Five Dow 30 Component Companies
A Twenty Year Chart Offers a Perspective That Always Gives You Greater Profits
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Every Dow 30 Component Company has taken some big hits over the years.
Here are links to 20-year chart for each of the five: MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE.
Summary
At this writing, dissecting these five Companies suggests that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating. Of the 30 component Companies in the Dow Industrials, currently 6 are Losers and 24 remain Bullish. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. My Forecasts suggest that within the next six months a notable number, not all, of the current 24 Bullish Dow components will become Losers. It is simple mathematics with a few caveats: When there are more bullish companies you have a bull market, and vice-versa. The trick is knowing the Bulls from the Bears! As this occurs, the Dow Industrial Index will be taking hits or pull-backs that will clearly confirm to you that a Bear Market is in the making.
My work with the Dow 30 Industrials is by far the most graphic of all my Analytic (Indices and Other Key) Indicators. Sharing it with the Public is a pleasure and I indeed hope you will profit by my work.
Smile, Have fun, "Investing Wisely,"
Dr. Steve
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