Dimon’s Detached View Of Economic Realities

In December of 2019, I wrote about Dimon’s delusional view of economic realities. To wit:

“The consumer, which is 70% of the U.S. economy, is quite strong. Confidence is very high. Their balance sheets are in great shape. And you see that the strength of the American consumer is driving the American economy and the global economy. And while business slowed down, my current view is that, no, it just was a slowdown, not a petering out.” – Jamie Dimon

That’s what the head of JP Morgan Chase told viewers in his “60-Minutes” interview.

Then the 2020 recession set in, consumption collapsed, and the Government passed massive stimulus bills to support the 50-million unemployed. 

Such isn’t the first time that I have discussed Dimon’s distorted viewsJust as we discussed then, even just marginally scratching the surface on the economy and the “household balance sheet” reveals an uglier truth.

In his latest annual shareholder letter, he recently made his usual bombastic and still delusional statements.

Economic Boom Into 2023

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine, and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom. This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.” – Jamie Dimon

There are many problems with his view looking forward.

To begin with, the vast majority of American’s do not have excess savings. If they did, then repeated stimulus payments wouldn’t be needed to support economic growth. The reality is “savings” get skewed by the top 20% of income earners, notably the 0.01% like Jamie Dimon.

The top 5%, of income earners skew the measure. Those in the top 20% have seen substantially larger median wage growth versus the bottom 80%. (Note: all data used below is from the Census Bureau and the IRS.)”

Dimon's View Economic, #MacroView: Dimon’s Detached View Of Economic Realities

Since the top income earners have more than enough income to maintain their living standards, the balance falls into savings. This disparity in incomes generates the “skew” to the savings rate and obfuscates the ability to “maintain a certain standard of living.”

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