December 2019 CPI Update
Not much to say. More of the same. Shelter inflation tracking over 3%, non-shelter core around 1.5%, and core CPI about 2.2%. I don't think short-term inflation fluctuations are very informative at this point unless they veer wildly in one direction or the other. I still think the most likely event in the near term is a decline in interest rates, so I am still mostly holding on to bond exposure and keeping powder dry on some potential tactical equity positions, except for positions with some defensive elements.
For instance, Hovnanian, a homebuilder, (HOV) that is highly leveraged, financially and operationally, and poised to recover because of both defensive and speculative potential of that sector. I actually consider that position a sort of hedge against a bond position, in part, because I think a primary factor holding yields down is the lack of residential investment.