December 2018 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Index Worsens And Approaches 7 Year Low

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward worsened and remains in contraction. ECRI also issued their inflation index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Falls Again

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 142.4 as WLI growth declined further to -5.3%, approaching a seven-year low.

On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data. 

 

The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For more on ECRI's cyclical outlook, please see links below to information that we have made public:

- read ECRI's "2018 Cycle Calls"

- read ECRI's latest op-ed "A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan interview on "Global Slowdown, Trade War and the Fed's Belated Blink" on CNBC

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below: 

Click here to review ECRI's recent real-time track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures further subsided in December.

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