December 2018 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Index Unchanged But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was unchanged but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.7, while WLI growth remained unchanged at -3.9%. 
 

The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. 

For more on ECRI's cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has been made public:

- read ECRI's latest op-ed "A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on "Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed's Belated Blink" on CNBC 

- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below: 

 

Click here to review ECRI's recent track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures subsided in November.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

source: ECRI

Disclaimer: No content is to be construed as investment advise and all content is provided for informational purposes only.The reader is solely responsible for determining whether any investment, ...

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