Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 13.1, up from 12.1 in January. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped four points to 10.1, indicating a slight deceleration in output growth.

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved notably in February. The general business activity index rose 12 points to 13.1 after posting weak readings the prior two months. The company outlook index rose seven points to 14.2, a four-month high. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks retreated 12 points to 4.1, its lowest reading in nine months.

Expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive in February. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook rose to 17.7 and 26.7, respectively. Most other indexes for future manufacturing activity fell but remained solidly positive.

Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance:

Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Texas turns out a large share of the country’s production of petroleum and coal products, reflecting the significance of the region’s refining industry. Texas also produces over 10 percent of the nation’s computer and electronics products and nonmetallic mineral products, such as brick, glass and cement.

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