Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook: WTI Rally Fizzles Ahead Of Resistance

In this series, we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude Oil is on the defensive to start the week with price pulling back from six-week highs after a rally of more than 18.7% from the yearly/monthly open. While the threat of more near-term losses remains, the broader outlook remains constructive - here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.


(Click on image to enlarge)

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: In our previous Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that prices had rebounded from a critical support confluence with the advance targeting initial pitchfork resistance around ~50.49. “A breach above the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 200-week moving average at ~52.12 and the confluence resistance zone at 55.21/53.” Crude broke higher in the following days with the advance surpassing the 200-week moving average last week.

The rally failed just ahead of confluence resistance with prices poised to register an outside-daily reversal today in New York. The immediate threat is for further losses here, but the broader outlook remains constructive while above the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 46.91. Initial support rests at the median-line at ~48.32. Topside resistance objectives remain unchanged with a breach above 55.21/53needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting critical confluence resistance at the 50% retracement / 2018 open at 59.61-60.06.

Bottom line: The crude oil price advance remains vulnerable near-term while below 55.21/53. From a trading standpoint, looking for support on a larger pullback towards the median-line to offer more favorable long-entries with our broader focus weighted to the topside while above 46.91.

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