Cornering Putin

Today the Cold War resumed as both the USA and the European Community imposed new economic sanctions on Russian companies and banks, because the Putin government had violated international treaty commitments by furnishing eastern Ukrainian separatists with banned weaponry. And because it was not changing tack despite the horrible results including the death of hundreds of innocent airline passengers.

The impact of sanctions is greatest on companies which operate in the Russian energy sector, but there are further implications affection some of our holdings as well. They are detailed for our paid subscribers below.

Having studied the Russian language for two years when in college, chatting over tea with little old Tsarist ladies who had escaped the Revolution as children, I developed what then (and now again) is called a St. Peterburg accent. But if I ever got to chat with Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, I would not trust the Russian I had barely used for decades, and would revert to my first foreign language, which was German which he speaks fluently.

Cornering Putin, what I would tell him is that expansionist populist hysteria coupled with corruption masking itself as socialism is not a good long-term foundation for political power. Good propaganda produces short-term foreign and economic policies. The outcome is dangerous: embargoes, deprivation, more crude nationalism, and perhaps a slide into a war nobody wants.

Saying this has far more impact in German anyway, because that was what how the Nazis tried to run Germany.

*In a Wall Street Journal interview yesterday, the top brass at Liberty Mediaconfirmed what we have suspected, that the John Malone entities are not interested in getting into social media, but are seriously in pursuit of content. But they are also keeping their cards close to their vest. There is little doubt in my mind that LBTYA is going after more than just 6.4% of ITV in a bid to add content to its cable and telco empire. Mr Malone calls this “vertical investment”. His team also confirmed that the group along with Discovery Channel is looking into buying a slice of Formula 1. However he has no plans to buy into telcos, saying that they should be buying into cable instead. And he specifically said that neither Google nor Facebook is a likely target for Liberty. What a comfort!

*However Telefonica doesn't agree with Malone and is rumored to be negotiating to buy into no. 3 telco Iusacell in Mexico. We sold TEF.

*Canada also is politically active in telephony planning a big auction of 50 mHz for 20 yearsnext year which will give an edge to smaller telcos, meaning not to BCE.

*Schlumberger Ltd is the likeliest to suffer from sanctions against Russia, because despite being incorporated offshore (in the Dutch Antilles) it does not violate US or European sanctions, despite misleading articles in www.seekingalpha.com which imply that it would continue to work with the Russians. This is a relatively minor market for SLB however.

*Also affected are Yandex and our Raven Rus real estate investment. YNDX; RUS:LDN.

*Canadian Solar expressed disappointment at being subject to heavy US Department of Commrece anti-dumping duties, apparently higher than what was imposed on US importers of Chinese solar modules. However the Canadian firm says it “does not expect significant disruption to our business in the US.” CSIQ

*Our newest Irish biotech play, Alkermes, gained because of expected royalties from a Johnson & Johnson best-seller jab, Sustenna injectable long-term treatment of schizophrenia. It reports tomorrow when I will be off-line to head for Paris.

*GlaxoSmithKline began marketing its injectable Tanzeum (glucogen peptide 1 receptor agonist) to treat type 2 diabetes which recently won FDA okay.

*News that Portuguese prosecutors are examining Banco Espirito Santo for alleged insider trading, which also caught the attention of Bolsa regulators, is putting the world's attention back on the links between BES and Portugal Telecom, PT. PT was the creditor which caused one BES Luxembourg holding company to default, Rioforte, but there are a whole bunch of them. It appears (oh, shock horror) that some members of the Espirto Santo clan who knew about this sold PT short. This saga will run for years but meanwhile the merger of PT with Oi is still coming. An Oi board member had the grace to resign before he shorted PT, but the bankers did not resign until forced out.

Fund notes:

*Another new high for Fibra Uno which named a new exec, Gerardo Vargas. FBASF is up sharply on enthusiasm for its vast expansion plans.

*Alliance World Fund declared an 8.1 cent/sh dividend.

*Aberdeen Asia Pacific Income's monthly payout will be 61% investment income and 39% return of capital. FAX

*Aberdeen Global Income's divvie will be 78% investment income and the rest ROC. FCO

Disclosure: None

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