Copper Industry Carnage: The Worst Is Yet To Come

The second largest copper mining company in the world saw its stock price plummet by nearly 15% today due to poor earnings. Freeport-McMoRan’s fourth-quarter net income fell nearly 90% compared to the same period last year. The large decline in net income was attributed to falling production, due to scheduled maintenance, and lower copper prices.

Freeport-McMoRan’s stock price (FCX) started trading in premarket after releasing its dismal earnings at $12.30 a share, and by the time the closing bell rang, the stock fell to $10.70. FCX lost a $1.86 in one day:

According to the company’s financial results, Freeport’s net income fell to $140 million Q4 2018 compared to $1.04 billion during the same period last year. While it’s true that the company’s poor results were due to a decline in production, another reason was the lower copper price which fell to an average of $2.75 in Q4 2018 versus $3.21 in the same quarter last year.

The copper price was trading at a high of $3.30 at the beginning of 2018 but has now fallen by more than 20% to $2.64. The drop in the copper price over the past year has negatively impacted Freeport’s share price. FCX share price has fallen from nearly $20 in January 2018 to $10.70 as of the close on Thursday’s trading (Jan 24th).

Freeport’s stock price is shown in the candlesticks while the copper price is shown in the orange line. I didn’t put a line in the chart, but if Freeport falls below the $9.50 level indicated by the arrow, it doesn’t have any support below it for quite a while. Unfortunately for Freeport, my analysis suggests that the copper price is getting ready to take the next stage lower along with the broader markets.

As I mentioned weeks ago, the copper price was stuck between to moving averages and would likely stay there until it fell below it substantially. On January 4th, the copper price was trading at $2.65, in between the 50 & 200 Month Moving Averages (MMA):

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