Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):

Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index (green), all standardized for 2021M01-2025M02 period. July sentiment is preliminary; August news sentiment through August 24. U.Michigan via FRED, Conference Board, SF Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.

While Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are about 1 or 1.5 standard deviations above the April trough, they’re both about 1.5 standard deviations below December/November peaks.

Expectations continue to decline. Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of recession is climbing back to April levels.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Conference Board, accessed 8/262025.

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