Cold Mid-February Risks Save Gas From AM Sell-Off

Things were initially ugly in the natural gas market this morning, with the February contract plummeting on weak cash prices as the February/March G/H spread fell to flat. Afternoon models showed more cold risks and a firm strip indicated morning selling was overdone, though, with the whole strip then settling about a percent higher on the day. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The March contract was the biggest loser at the front of the strip, but gains were rather uniform overall. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The result was minimal changes in the day-over-day February/March G/H spread into expiry despite a significant move earlier this morning. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The March/April H/J spread even ticked down on a day where we logged a gain at the front of the strip. 

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natural gas commodity weather

This support came from some more supportive afternoon weather model guidance, which the Climate Prediction Center showed in its Week 2 forecast probabilities today. 

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natural gas commodity weather

 

LNG exports that are still sitting in the middle of their recent range. 

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natural gas commodity weather

 

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