The prior 3 occurrences, 3m/10Y stayed inverted for an average of 7 months.

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Weakest PMI New Orders in Germany since the Financial Crisis.

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For those asking if 3month-10year inversion is a good recession indicator – yes it is. In the post-Bretton Woods era, no false negatives, and the only possible false positive came briefly in the extreme conditions of the 1998 LTCM crisis:

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The Chinese economy may be nearly one-seventh smaller than officially reported (Economist)

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Investors are fleeing tech: the only thing keeping tech stocks higher are record buybacks.

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