Bulls Biding Time

6 out of 7 days down for the S&P 500 and a scary 2% overall decline. If you listen to paid actors like Jim Cramer, you would think this is a bear market and things are really bad. It was only a few months ago when he implored investors on June 18 not to buy because some technical analyst said the market “always” heads lower to month-end. By the way, June 18 was the low of a three-day pullback and stocks ripped higher for the next few weeks.

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I will say this, though. The stock market does have some heaviness to it, meaning up openings are immediately sold and intra-day rallies are snuffed out super quickly. That’s not the warm and fuzzy bulls like me want to see. Nonetheless, so far, there hasn’t been any real damage done to the uptrend. This still looks like yet another little episode where investors overthink and exaggerate what’s coming down the pike. I would feel even more comfortable if the stock market exceeded Tuesday’s low and then started to rally.

Let’s also not forget that semis scored an all-time high on Tuesday and discretionary did last week. However, banks remain mired in a range, and transports are breaking lower and look like me without TV makeup for a 6 am segment.

High-yield bonds just keep quietly chugging higher which may be the most important sign that nothing big on the downside is out there.

Please see HC's full disclosure here.

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