Yesterday’s signals could have produced a losing long trade following the bullish price action rejecting the support level identified at $3,886.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time today only.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,700 or $3,338.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,925, $4,055, or $4,374.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there was new support at $3,886 but the picture was still long and medium-term bearish. The descending trend line shown in the price chart below was quite confluent with the horizontal resistance at $4,055 so I thought this might produce a key bearish turn if reached. I was correct to see the bears as in control as the price has continued to descend, with a former support level breaking down. The price is now in a bearish wedge and continues to make new lows. I think it makes sense to remain broadly bearish as long as the price remains below $4,000. A sustained break below $3,700 would be a very bearish sign.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.