Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at $3,571.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time today only.

Long Trade

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,568 or $3,450.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,732 or $3,914.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the technical picture was now much more bearish than it was last Thursday, with the price breaking down below the former bullish channel. I thought that there may be another short opportunity if there was a convincing bearish reversal between $3,600 and $3,570 and I would have taken a bearish bias if that happened.

This scenario seemed close to playing out before the price suddenly spiked up and stabilized close to the next resistance level of $3,732, before selling off a little. We can now expect the level just below $3,570 to probably be supportive.

I have no bias, any bounce off a level could be good, but if $3,568 holds as support then we may be seeing the final leg of a bullish “over and under” pattern begin to form.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.