Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time today only.

Long Trade

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,274.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of the bearish trend line currently sitting at about or $3,593.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the picture is just looking a little more bullish, but I noted there was still a long-term bearish trend and heavy resistance. I thought that a sustained break above $3,593 would be a bullish sign, while a sustained break below the supportive trend line could trigger a fall to new long-term low prices near the $3,000 level. Neither scenario materialized that day, but the price then broke down to new long-term lows before moving upwards strongly yesterday. This leaves us with a more bullish technical picture, especially because the long-term bearish trend line has been broken to the upside. The price is now near the middle of a wide range with no obvious levels, so some kind of consolidation around $3,500 is probably going to be the most likely outlook over the short-term. I have no directional bias today and prefer to sit on the side here instead of getting involved.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.