Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when $3,700 was reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,338.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,925, $4,055, or $4,374.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price was now in a bearish wedge and continuing to make new lows. I thought it made sense to remain broadly bearish as long as the price traded below $4,000. I thought that a sustained break below $3,700 would be a very bearish sign.

This was a reasonably good call as the price continued to fall over most of the past day, but a few hours ago rose quickly to recover enough to almost reach the price it was trading at 24 hours ago. The price has also respected the lower trend line of the aforementioned bearish wedge pattern.

It looks like the area around $3,925 has a confluence of resistance and so is likely to be today’s pivotal level. I remain broadly bearish and would take a bearish bias if there is a strong bearish failure following a test of that price area. Conversely, an unlikely break up above the $4,000 would be a bullish sign that perhaps a bigger recovery in the Bitcoin price is beginning, but that really does look unlikely.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.