Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bullish price action at $3,571.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trade

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,450.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,571 or $3,732.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that I would not want to get bearish while the price was still above $3,741 which I thought was likely to be the pivotal level that day. I was ready to take a bearish bias below that level, and that was a good call on a nicely profitable move.

The technical picture is now much more bearish than it was last Thursday, with the price breaking down below the former bullish channel. There may be another short opportunity if there is a convincing bearish reversal between $3,600 and $3,570 and I would take a bearish bias if that happened.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD.