Let's review where Bitcoin can reach during this Wyckoff markup phase into 2024/25. 

Pixabay

Historically, Bitcoin (BITCOMP) moves to the upper blue line moving average bands (as before, like A and B). This would be a target range of $188,000 USD to $350,000 USD. However, in 2021 (C) price stumbled and failed to mirror prior price achievements. 


Chart 1 - Upper band target for BTC

 

Several things happened in 2021 that can be blamed for Bitcoin underachieving:

1) China banned crypto (for x number of times).

2) President Trump called Bitcoin a scam (see video below). Also, during Trump's presidential term, Fed Chair Powell met with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong in May (via the Powell calendar notes), and shortly after this meeting, Bitcoin price smashed 30% lower.  Therefore, one can assume large sell orders hit the market after Fed Chairman Powell's meeting with Coinbase (COIN), on the back of President Trump's blessing. 


President Trump back in 2021 (video CNBC):

 

Now things have changed in 2024, both Biden and Trump camps realize that Bitcoin capital gains help keep the US government afloat. Trump is now a fan! So maybe we can expect a target similar to A and B (Chart 1) as prior performances of $BTC markup rallies. 



Chart 2 - Wyckoff Cause and Effect at work in Bitcoin price action 
 

The coming US dollar liquidity wave is now arriving in the markets for the 2024 election year.

1) China is now supporting its housing market.
2) BOJ is now supporting the Yen.
3) Yellen has a full TGA account to buy US Treasuries bonds.
4) Yellen has engineered bank balance sheets to buy more US Treasuries bonds.
5) The FED is slowing moving policy to defend growth first, rather than fighting inflation first.
6) US economic funding via fiscal means is exploding (deficits are not shrinking). 

So, why wouldn't Bitcoin print a price over $350,000 USD ?

Lets watch!

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