Barchart Morning Call


September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.18%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are little changed, up +0.01%, after the German Jun IFO business conditions fell more than expected to a 6-month low, a sign that the European economy may be slowing. Losses in European stocks were limited on a possible short-term truce to the hostilities in Ukraine. The ruble strengthened against the dollar and the Russian Micex Stock Index rallied over 1% after pro-Russian forces in Ukraine called for a cease-fire, matching a truce made earlier by Ukraine President Poroshenko. Russian President Putin also asked the Russian house of parliament to cancel approval granted Mar 1 to use force in Ukraine. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.05%, Hong Kong +0.33%, China +0.50%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea +1.16%, India +1.35%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.07%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.14%) is up +0.07%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.52%) is up +0.52% at a 2-1/4 month high. July copper (HGN14 +0.03%) is up +0.13%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grains lower as U.S. crop conditions continue to be favorable, while livestock prices are higher after the USDA's Cold Storage report, released after the markets closed Monday, signaled lower beef and pork supplies. The dollar index (DXY00-0.06%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.14%) are up +6.5 ticks.

The German Jun IFO business climate fell -0.7 to 109.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 110.3 and the lowest in 6 months. The Jun IFO current assessment was unchanged at 114.8, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 115.0. The Jun IFO expectations fell -1.4 to 104.8, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.2 to 106.0 and the lowest in 8 months.


Today's April FHFA home price index is expected to show a solid gain of +0.5% m/m, adding to the +0.7% increase seen in March. Meanwhile, today's April Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show an increase of +0.80% m/m, adding to March's sharp increase of +1.24% m/m. Today's May new home sales report is expected to show an increase of +1.6% to 440,000, adding to the +6.4% increase to 433,000 seen in April. Today's June U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show an increase of +0.5 points to 83.5, adding to the +1.3 point increase to 83.0 seen in May. Today's June Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -1 point decline to 6 following the May report of unchanged at 7.

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