Bankster Heal Thyself

Bankster, heal thyself! Don't rob your owners because you have no idea what is going on off the over-paid executive's floor. 

The usefulness of bank regulations has been thrown into question by the latest blooper, a mere $4 bn of potential capital charges which was discovered 4 years after their creation by Bank of New York Merrill Lynch. This follows the invisible actions by "The London Whale" who ate the profits at JP Morgan Chase without anyone noticing, and the Mexican mismanagement Citibank is still working on to find out how much it lost south of the border. Then too, BNP Paribas is in deep do with NYC bank examiners for sending money out of the USA to embargoed outlaw countries like Sudan and Syria. Meanwhile UBS faces more investigations of its old bad habit of money laundering for US residents.

Here we go again with a "stress test" in the European Union and a batch of regulations here in the USA and new capital adequacy standards by the Bank for International Settlements. But in fact the largest banks are incapable of providing accurate information on what their staffers are up to and what their accounts contain. They are not only too big to fail. They are too big to know what they are doing.

More for paid subscribers follows with two quarterly reports and news from Israel, Britain, Brazil, Canada,Ireland, Sweden, and a few other places like Russia and Ukraine.

*GlaxoSmithKline today reported profits off 30% year-over-year because of a steep decline in its respiratory franchise and disposals of thrombosis drugs, destocking, and the impact of high pound sterling. Weakness also results from the spreading impact of bribery scandals in China. GSK weak profits came in at GBP 668 mn, vs 961 mn in Q1 2013. Per share because of buybacks, core profits were off less, down 18% to 21 pence. The consensus EPS forecast had been 21.4 pence. (Each ADR is equal to 4 UK shares.). Sales fell 14% y/o/y to GBP 5.61 bn, missing analyst forecasts. The loss of Advair US sales because it now is off the reimbursement prescription list and faces copycats. This loss of a blockbuster hurt GSK badly, and new respiratory drugs failed to catch on with the market.

CEO Sir Andrew Witty repeated his forecast of a 4 to 8% rise in core earnings this year, excluding currencies. In the conference call, he refused to reply to questions over a possible GSK riposte to the bid for fellow-Brit AstraZeneca plcexpected from Pfizer. He said GSK would not be a "white knight" given the huge $20 bn asset shift with Novartis he is working on. GSK fell 2.9% in London afternoon trading. SoGen rates GSK a buy. GSK raised its dividend/sh to 19 pence and will continue its buyback program.

*Also reporting today Vale saw its Q1 profits fall 19% to the equivalent of $2.52 bn, or 49 cents/sh, also missing the consensus forecast (which was $2.59 bn and 53 cents according to Bloomberg.) Sales were off 11% to $9.5 bn because its realized sales prices on iron ore shipped to China fell to $90.52/metric tonne, off 19% from Q4 2013 and off 21% from Q1 2013. To recoup part of that, VALE shipped nearly 10% more iron ore in Q1 this year than last, a record total for Q1 of 71.1 mn tonnes was mined, excluding the new Samarco jv. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a measure of cash-flow. fell 22%. The problem here is that profits were already lousy in Q1 2013. Vale expects that seaborne iron ore supplies will be sold in future quarters as rivals pull back form the market. I will not be attending the conference calls as I have a luncheon date. Desculpe.

*Barrick Gold whose US$ bonds we own reported its profits had fallen 90% in Q1. Happily we sold and switched to fixed income at ABX.

*Yandex is among the targets of new Russian legislation to control dissent on the Internet. Any blogger with more than 3000 followers will have to register and give his or her personal details to the authorities. Nobody will be allowed to blog in support of terrorism or "other extremist moves" or to promote violence or pornography. Bloggers are required to check the accuracy of what they post and are not allowed to give information about peoples' personal lives which are intrusive or which "besmirch them." Bloggers may not conceal or falsify information which is of public importance." Violations will result in fines of up to 50,000 rubles ($1400 but falling).

This dog's breakfast is a Russian attempt to impose retroactively a Chinese wall similar to that applying to the Internet in China. If Pres. Putin who wanted the new rules signs of on what Parliament voted, the new measures will go into force in August. Putin last week called the Internet "a CIA project" so I suspect he will sign the censorship law. Russia can also block websites which offend it without a law or a court ruling already. Yandex operates search engines in Russia and Ukraine but also hosts blogsites. YNDX is Dutch.

*Teva will buy $20 mn of natural gas from Delek Group to supply its 4 plants in Israel with 15 mn cu meters of gas/year, saving millions. Teva which reports tomorrow at 8 am NY time (1-877-327-9806) was down-rated 2 steps to hold from buy by analysts at Maxim Group.

Today Teva reported that its tamper-proof extended release narcotic pill hydrocodone (rival to Zohydro did better than placebo in varying doses in treating back pain without acetaminophen. It will submit a new drug application with the FDA.

*After the blowup of Canadian Solar based on its SEC 20f, I rushed to read the one from Banco Latino-Americano de Comercio of Panama today. The situation is less fraught. BLX reports that its credit portfolio is concentrated by counties which can affect its finances, growth, results, and prospects. We knew that already. It closed 2013 with 63% of its loans to 5 countries: Brazil ($1.8 bn, 26%); Colombia ($838 mn, 12%); Peru ($662 mn, 9%); Mexico ($562 mn, 8%) and Chile ($532 mn, also 8%.)

*Cameco CEO Tim Gitzel in its conference call yesterday indicated that there are probably unregulated uranium sales "still splashing around in the market". Until these 10-20 mn oz are sopped up, uranium prices will be soft even though official supplies and demand are in balance. He hinted that "secondary supplies" would "last for a while yet." CCJ

*Nokia is rising some more in European market. NOK.

*Compugen will present immunology fusion protein checkpoint drug candidates at the May 2-6 Pittsburgh Immunology Conference. Regulator T-cells can induce long-term immune tolerance and CGEN-15001 works in the testtube against autimmune diseases like diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and multiple sclerosis. Dr. Irish Hecht, CGEN's principal scientist, will present the major paper on this May 6.

*Paddy Power plc reports before we wake up on May 13 at 7 am Irish time and its conference call is at 8:30 am. I would like a European reader to volunteer to cover for me. Toll fre number is 1 800 946 812 in the Auld Sod and 44 1296 480 104 in Blighty. The passcode is 104055.

PDYPF and all its UK bookie rivals say they are happy with the new UK rules leaving it to local councils to license betting shops with 4 one-armed bandits per store, sometimes a half dozen on a single street, as long as the rules to stop gambling addiction apply to them all.

*Fund news:

*Investor will tender the 0.4% it still owns in Scania to Volkswagen which is making a takeover bid. IVSBF is a Swedish holding company.

*Aberdeen Global Income Fund will make up its May dividend 87% from investment income and 13% from return of capital. FCO pays 70 cents/mo.

*Its stable-mate Aberdeen Asia Pacific Income Fund or FAX pays half as much, 35 cents. It will use investment income for 61% of the May payment, and return of capital for 39%. These numbers vary from month to month and the Aberdeen group publish them (other fund groups don't bother).

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