Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: AUD/USD Recovery Vulnerable

In this series, we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Australian Dollar is up more than 1.3% against the US Dollar year-to-date with the recovery now in question as price approaches technical resistance. The focus is on a break of a 200pip range just above yearly open support - these are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.

AUD/USD WEEKLY PRICE CHART

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD Price Chart - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly

Notes: AUD/USD has continued to trade just above yearly open support at 7042 after rebounding sharply into the start of 2018 trade on building weekly momentum divergence. The subsequent recovery has lost steam over the past few weeks with Aussie poised to post a weekly doji into the close of trade today.

Bullish invalidation is set to the low-day close at 7005 with resistance eyed at the June trendline / high-week close at 7246/70. A breach/close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting 7327and the 52-week moving average at 7350 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached. A break below the 70-handle would mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing the 2016 low / low-week close at 6827/55.

Bottom line: Aussie must stabilize above 7000 for the January recovery to remain viable with a breach / close above 7270 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for possible downside price exhaustion on a move lower. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the intraday AUD/USD trading levels.

AUD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.45 (59.2% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since February 5th; price has moved 1.1% lower since then
  • Long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 12.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 15.6% higher than yesterday and 7.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long
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