Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

  (Click on image to enlarge)

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6443 or $0.6509.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Idea

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6345.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. 
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast one week ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was probably going to offer one of two potential opportunities:

• A long trade from a bullish bounce at $0.6435, which could probably aim for a high reward to risk ratio of profit as it is against the dominant trend.
• A short trade from a rejection of the nearby resistance level which is confluent with the major round number at $0.6500.

This was a good call as the resistance at $0.6580 did offer s profitable short trade, although it was not very profitable, but I did recommend taking profits quickly.

The technical picture has become considerably more bearish, with the price plunging over the past day to a new 4-month low on Trump’s BRICS tariff threat and disappointing Australian GDP data, making further rate cuts more likely. So, there are several reasons for the weakness in the Aussie. We also have a fairly strong US Dollar which is in a bullish long-term trend, even though its momentum has slowed lately.

Overall, there are reasons to be bearish, and the technical picture supports this, with the price just bouncing back but again turning bearish at the new resistance level of $0.6434. There are no key support levels nearby, so the price seems to have plenty of room to fall. However, bulls should bear in mind that the last time the price was in this area, it saw long-term buying.

If the price retests $0.6434 and rejects it again, I would be prepared to enter a new short trade there.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by the release of ISM Services PMI data at 3pm.

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