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My previous AUD/USD signal on 3rd June produced a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at $0.6450.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6517, $0.6531, or $0.6558.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6479, $0.6450, or $0.6423.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast on Tuesday last week, I wrote that this currency pair was looking likely to have a pivotal point for the day at the support level at $0.6450. This was an excellent and accurate call, which supported a long trade from that area which was profitable.
The technical picture has become more interesting: the price has been rising in line with a weakening US Dollar. The US Dollar is sitting heavily on strong long-term support, and this is confluent with the resistance level which the price here has rejected several times at $0.6531.
We see a bullish, slowly upwards moving squeeze, which suggests a likely outcome is an eventual strong bullish breakout beyond $0.6531. This might come after weaker than expected US CPI data which might be released yesterday, so depending upon that data, there could be a trade opportunity here.
It should also be said that the shorter-term price action is looking bearish, so a further downwards price movement, especially if the CPI data is higher than expected, is completely possible. Yet I see a bullish breakout as the more likely outcome.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of US CPI data at 3pm London time.
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