I see looking to get long of this currency pair as the only side worth taking today, but I would only do so relatively cautiously. 

My previous signal on 16^th November produced a nicely profitable long trade from the bullish rejection by an hourly pin bar of the support level which I had identified at $0.6456.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6609 or $0.6631.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6535, $0.6456, or $0.6391.
• Place stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast last Thursday that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to rise higher over the day and soon exceed the 3-month high price above $0.6500 as there were no technically valid resistance levels in the way of such a long-term bullish breakout.

This was a good call over the longer term, as the price has now made this bullish breakout, and gave a profitable long trade from the support level that day.

The technical picture is even more bullish now, with the US Dollar selling off everywhere, and most major currencies rising strongly against it yesterday. The AUD was no exception, but it is worth noting that other currencies made stronger gains against the greenback, with the bullish breakout here now showing a bearish retracement.

There will be a release of major US data later, but it is strongly unlikely to change the short US Dollar sentiment. Technically, the price has room to rise to at least $0.6609.

I see looking to get long of this currency pair as the only side worth taking today, but I would only do so relatively cautiously. A bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $0.6535 would probably be a good opportunity to enter a new long trade.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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