Asia Morning Bites For Tuesday, November 26

By Robert Carnell of ING Economics

Tuesday, November 26, 2024 2:00 AM EST

brown and black printed textile

Image Source: Unsplash

Global Macro and Markets

Global Markets: US Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday. The yield on 2Y USTs fell 10.6 basis points to 4.269%, while 10Y yields fell 12.7bp to 4.273%. This all appears to be related to the news we reported in this note yesterday about the picking of Scott Bessent to be the next Treasury Secretary, which markets have received well. Since then, there have also been headlines reporting Donald Trump as saying that he would impose an additional 10% tariffs on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada, which will add some further volatility. More positively, there are reports also that a ceasefire may be days away in the Middle East between Israel and Hizbollah.
There was less euphoria in the equity markets. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose about 0.3% yesterday, while Chinese stock indices lost between 0.4 and 0.5%. EURUSD pushed back above 1.05 but is sitting just below that level now. Other G-10 currencies have also made further gains against the USD, though the AUD remains roughly unchanged at about 65 cents. Asian FX also had a positive day on Monday, led by the previous laggards, the KRW and TWD. The MYR also made decent gains. USDINR has dropped to 84.29 from 84.5 and USDCNY is down to 7.2462.
G7 Macro: There wasn’t a whole lot going on in macro-land yesterday. Just some more bad German Ifo data, but that will have surprised no one. Macro was well down the pecking order from political appointments and other noise yesterday. There is more macro data today, but none of it is particularly interesting. The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence data is probably the main release of the day, but there are also various housing-related numbers published. Early tomorrow morning Asia time (03:00 SGT/HKT) we get the FOMC minutes of the last meeting published. The commentary from FOMC members has been mixed since then, with some suggesting greater caution, but others (Kashkari overnight) indicating December remains open for further easing. Markets reflect this, with just a 55% chance of a December cut priced in. The minutes may shift the needle slightly one way or another.
Singapore: After a sharp decline in non-oil domestic exports in October, we suspect there may be some downside risk to the consensus forecast for a 2.0% MoM (2.6%YoY) increase in October industrial production published at 13:00 SGT.

What to look out for: Japan PPI services, Singapore industrial production, South Korea consumer confidence

November 26th

Japan: October PPI services

Singapore: October industrial production

S Korea: November consumer confidence

November 27th

Australia: October CPI

China: October industrial profits

Philippines: October budget balance PHP

November 28th

S Korea: November BoK base rate

November 29th

India: 3Q GDP, October fiscal deficit

Japan: October jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production November Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence index

Taiwan: 3Q GDP

China: November composite and manufacturing PMI (November 30th)

S Korea: November imports, exports, trade balance (December 1st)

More By This Author:

Rates Spark: Downside Bias For Market Rates In Near-Term
Strong Start To The Quarter For Polish Industry
FX Daily: G3 December Monetary Policy In Focus

Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...

Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.

less

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.