As Earnings Season Heads Towards Peak Weeks, The Good Outweighs The Bad

While poor marks from Morgan Stanley were not much of a surprise yesterday, after the prior week’s dismal banking results, another lower-than-expected report dragged financials profit growth down to -2.9%. However, there were some bright spots yesterday that have given other sectors a lift.

Halliburton put up EPS of $1.19, $0.08 better than the Wall Street consensus and $0.02 higher than what we were expecting here at Estimize. Revenues were slightly weaker at $8.77B, in-line with the street, but lower than the Estimize consensus. The top-line boost was able to push growth for energy equipment & services up to 3.6%, vs. the other industry in the energy sector, oil, gas and consumable fuels which is still down 19.5%. ,

Netflix reported after yesterday’s closing bell. One to always sandbag guidance, the company blew away expectations with EPS of $0.72, well above their $0.44 guidance and both the Wall Street and Estimize consensus. Revenues of $14.85B were roughly in-line. This bodes well for other players in the internet space, including eBay which is out later today, and Facebook, Google and Yahoo out next week. The IT sector as a whole has been very strong this quarter, expecting YoY profits to grow 12.4% and revs of 7.1%, and the internet software and services industry is a big driver of that growth with profits expected to rise 19.1%. Note, however, that Netflix is actually part of the internet retailers industry in the consumer discretionary sector.

Tonight all eyes will be on eBay. The real news will be the timing of the PayPal spinoff. The Estimize community is looking for EPS of $0.90 and revenues of $4.95B, very close to what the street is expecting and largely irrelevant. However, a big beat or a miss could have a big impact on the internet software and services industry.

How are we doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the fourth quarter stand at 5.4%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 1.2% growth. 

Leaders

Earnings:

Health Care (21.3%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (59.4%)

Telecommunication Services (17.7%).

Information Technology (12.4%). Notable industry: Semiconductors (31.1%)

Revenues:

Health Care (7.8%). Notable industry: Biotech (37.5%).

Information Technology (7.1%). Notable industry: Semiconductors (15.0%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Energy (-17.9%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (-19.5%)

Financials (-2.9%). Notable industry: Banks (-4.6%)

Materials (-2.5%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (-15.9%)

Revenues:

Energy (-13.6%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­-15.8%).

Materials (-1.0%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.0%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With 48 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far, 61% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 29% have missed and 10% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 77% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 10% have missed and 13% have met.

Revenue: 50% have beaten the Estimize consensus, while 50% have missed. For revenues, 65% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 35% have missed.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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