April Housing Permits And Starts: A Pullback From Peak, But No Recessionary Signal

The monthly statistics on housing permits and starts, reported this morning, were mixed, as permits increased slightly and starts declined:

The less volatile single-family permits also declined slightly.

On the one hand, a high level of construction activity is continuing. But the three-month moving average of both single-family and total permits, as well as starts, all declined from their highs in the December-January period. To be recessionary, I would need to see at least a 10% decline in total permits; the actual decline from peak is about 6%, so well within the range of a little pullback during an expansion.

I’ll have more to say once the data is posted at FRED, probably later today.

Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.