April Dallas Fed Manufacturing

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April. The latest general business activity index came in at 37.3, up 8.4 from 28.9 in March. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity expanded at solid clip in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 14 points to 34.0, a reading still well above average and indicative of robust output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to strong growth this month, with demand, labor, price and wage indexes reaching all-time highs.

Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity pushed further positive in April. The future production index moved up to 47.2, and the future general business activity index inched up to 36.6. Most other measures of future manufacturing activity also rose, and all remained solidly in positive territory.

Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance:

Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Texas turns out a large share of the country’s production of petroleum and coal products, reflecting the significance of the region’s refining industry. Texas also produces over 10 percent of the nation’s computer and electronics products and nonmetallic mineral products, such as brick, glass and cement.

Here is a snapshot of the complete TMOS.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing

The next chart is an overlay of the General Business Activity Index and the Future Outlook Index — the outlook six months ahead.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five for the latest month with complete data.

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