April 2019 Import Price Year-Over-Year Inflation Declines To -0.2%
Year-over-year import and export prices declined.
Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation
Import and export pricing have remained relatively constant this year with little change.
Import Oil prices were up 2.5 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 1.5 %.
- the markets were expecting (from Econoday):
Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual | |
Import Prices - M/M change | 0.5 % to 1.1 % | +0.7 % | +0.2 % |
Export Prices - M/M change | 0.2 % to 0.7 % | +0.5 % | +0.2 % |
Import Prices - Y/Y change | 0.1 % to 0.7 % | +0.3 % | -0.2 % |
Export Prices - Y/Y change | 0.6 % to 0.8 % | +0.7 % | +0.3 % |
There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.
Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.
Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.
According to the press release:
All Imports: The price index for U.S. imports rose 0.2 percent in April, continuing the upward trend that began in January. The April rise followed a 0.6-percent advance in March and a 1.0-percent increase in February. Despite the recent monthly advances, import prices declined 0.2 percent for the 12-month period ended in April. The April year-over-year decrease was driven by lower nonfuel prices. (See table 1.) Fuel Imports: The price index for fuel imports rose 2.5 percent in April, after increasing 6.9 percent in March and 10.2 percent in February. A 6.1-percent rise in petroleum prices drove the increase in fuel prices. Natural gas prices declined 53.7 percent in April, the largest decrease since the index was first published on a monthly basis in December 1994. Fuel prices rose 6.9 percent over the past 12 months. The price index for petroleum increased 7.0 percent for the year ended in April, and prices for natural gas declined 10.5 percent over the same period. The 12-month decrease in natural gas prices was the largest decline since the index fell 27.3 percent in June 2018.
All Exports: The price index for U.S. exports advanced 0.2 percent in April, after increasing 0.6 percent in March and 0.7 percent in February. Rising prices for nonagricultural exports led the overall advance in April and more than offset a decline in prices for agricultural exports. U.S. export prices rose 0.3 percent over the 12-month period ended in April. (See table 2.) Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports decreased 1.5 percent in April following a 1.0-percent advance in March. The April decline was driven by a 17.2-percent decrease in vegetable prices and a 6.8-percent decline in fruit prices. A 2.6-percent drop in corn prices also contributed to the overall decline in April. Prices for agricultural exports fell 2.8 percent over the past year. The 12-month decrease was led by a 14.1-percent drop in soybean prices. Lower prices for fruit, cotton, nuts, meat, and corn also contributed to the over-the-year decline in agricultural export prices.
Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).
Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)
Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index
Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.
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