The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1128
• Prev. Close: 1.1067
• % chg. over the last day: -0.55 %

The euro slipped to $1.1050 after weaker-than-expected inflation data fueled speculation of further ECB rate cuts. Eurozone annual inflation fell to 1.8% in September, the lowest since April 2021, and below prognoses of 1.9% and the ECB’s 2% target. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) also fell to 2.7% from 2.8% y/y. Previous data from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also showed lower inflationary pressures and came below estimates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1068, 1.1013
• Resistance levels: 1.1084, 1.1136, 1.1163, 1.1198, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday, the price broke through the support level of 1.1136, after which the expected sell-off started. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 1.1069, but the reaction of buyers is weak, which increases the probability of further decline. Sell deals can be looked for from 1.1084. The profit target is 1.1013. Buying can be considered only after the breakout of 1.1084, but with confirmation and a short stop, as it will be a trade against the main bias.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1163 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

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News feed for 2024.10.02:

• US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Collins Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3367
• Prev. Close: 1.3285
• % chg. over the last day: -0.62 %

On the back of the rising Dollar Index, the British pound declined yesterday despite positive economic data. S&P Global’s UK manufacturing PMI Index fell to 51.5 in September 2024 from 52.5 in August, as expected. The index remained above the neutral 50.0 level for the fifth consecutive month, supported by strong domestic demand as well as rising output and new orders. Three of the five subcomponents of the PMI Index pointed to improving conditions.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3153, 1.3115
• Resistance levels: 1.323, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to a downtrend. The situation is very similar to the euro. After the test of resistance, the British pound sharply declined and reached the 1.3241 support level. The volumes show that buyers are trying to keep the price here, but the reaction is weak. Intraday, we can look for selling from 1.3293 to renew the low of the week. Buying can be considered above 1.3293 but with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3389 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.02:

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 143.61
• Prev. Close: 143.56
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in August from 2.7% in July, better than market expectations of 2.6%. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey also showed that sentiment among large manufacturers remained at a two-year high in the third quarter. Good economic data plus statements from Shigeru Ishiba that monetary policy should remain stimulative create a negative for the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan, which was planning to raise rates, may face the interests of the new government soon.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 143.09, 142.22, 140.46, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 143.84, 145.23, 146.50

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the demand zone below 143.09. Currently, the price is forming a flat accumulation at the resistance level of 143.84. The bearish bias prevails intraday, and there is a high probability of a decline to 143.09, which opens up opportunities for intraday selling. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 146.50, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.02:

There is no news feed for today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2634
• Prev. Close: 2664
• % chg. over the last day: +1.14 %

Gold jumped more than 1% to surpass $2,660 an ounce on Tuesday, nearing an all-time high, driven by demand for the safe-haven currency amid escalating fears of a broader Middle East conflict following Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Israel. The Iranian missile strike was in response to Israeli military action against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2657, 2643, 2624, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2670, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price tested the resistance level of 2770 and corrected to the support level of 2657, where the buyers are trying to take the initiative, but the pressure from the sellers is also present. A price consolidation above 2658 will allow to look for buy trades with the target of 2670. A move below 2652 will trigger a sell-off to 2643.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.02:

• US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Collins Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

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