Advance Estimate 4Q2018 GDP Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth At 2.6 Percent

Real GDP (blue line) Vs. Real GDI (red line) Expressed As Year-over-Year Change

Real GDP is inflation adjusted and annualized - and Real GDP per capita remains on a general upward trend.

Real GDP per Capita

The table below compares the previous quarter estimate of GDP (Table 1.1.2) with the current estimate this quarter which shows:

  • consumption for goods and services improved adding 1.9 % to GDP.
  • trade balance improved deducting 0.2 % from GDP
  • inventory change added 0.1 % to GDP
  • fixed investment added 0.8 % to GDP
  • federal spending added 0.1 % to GDP

The following is Table 1.1.2 before the annual revision: [click to enlarge]

 

What the BEA says about this advance estimate:

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

Inflation continues to moderate as the "deflator" which adjusts the current value GDP to a "real" comparable value continues to moderate. The following compares the GDP deflator to the Consumer Price Index:

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