ADP Private Nonfarm Payrolls In November

The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.

Figure 1: Month-on-month growth rate (not annualized, in log terms) in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for November as of 12/2 (teal square), ADP November release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

Month-on-month growth rates for ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth decelerated from 0.34% to 0.26% (in log terms; 4.1% to 3.1% annualized). The implied deceleration in BLS reported private NFP is from 0.75% to 0.48%, using the Bloomberg consensus for November. (9.0% to 5.8% annualized).

There is a widening gap between the ADP measure of private NFP and the BLS measure. Both measures remain far below NBER peak levels, however. The November ADP private NFP is 7.5% below peak (7.8% in log terms).

Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for November as of 12/2 (teal square), ADP November release (red), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

Disclosure: None.

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