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ADP vs BLS Private Payrolls – Month-Over-Month

The ADP^® National Employment Report for September was a disaster.

• Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September
• ADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data.
• Job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors.
• “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP

Change by Industry

• Goods-producing: -3,000
  . Natural resources/mining 4,000
  . Construction -5,000
  . Manufacturing -2,000
• Service-providing: -28,000
  .Trade/transportation/utilities -7,000
  . Information 3,000
  . Financial activities -9,000
  . Professional/business services -13,000
  . Education/health services 33,000
  . Leisure/hospitality -19,000
  . Other services -16,000

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size

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Month-Over-Month Details

• 1-19: -19,000. Down 5 Straight Months
• 20-49: -21,000. Down 4 of Last 5 Months
• 50-249: -11,000. Up 4 of Last 5 Months
• 250-499: -9,000. Down 5 Straight Months
• 500+: +33,000. Up 4 of Last 5 Months

ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year

• Small: 1-49 Employees
• Medium: 50-499 Employees
• Large: 500+ Employees

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Small businesses are getting clobbered by tariffs, as predicted in this corner.

The BLS is scheduled to report on Friday but won’t because of the government shutdown.

ADP Statement on QCEW

In September, ADP conducted a preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report based on full-year 2024 results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the September 2025 ADP National Employment Report. The number of jobs created in August 2025 was revised from 54,000 to -3,000.

ADP’s full-year benchmarking will take place in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 National Employment Report.

Note: The most recent release of the QCEW contained a higher-than-normal number of missing or redacted values for establishment size by NAICS sector and geography subgroups. This required the benchmark to be calculated at a coarser granularity than in previous years.

Above ADP Note Translated

People stopped responding to surveys.

I suspect a lot of small businesses went out of business or reduced headcounts more than has yet been factored in.

Trump-Related Sarcasm

Q: Is ADP in on the BLS conspiracy to make Trump look bad on jobs?
A: Obviously

Realistically, this is the expected result from inane tariffs. Close to half of all imports are items used in manufacturing, not end consumer items.

Small businesses and end consumers are getting killed by Trump’s tariffs.

Related Posts

June 16, 2025: QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing

The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.

September 9, 2025: New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming to Job Reports

The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.

September 5, 2025: Jobs Report Misery: Only 22,000 Gain in August, June Revised to -13,000

August was a bad month for job seekers. Here are the grim details.

September 5, 2025: Since January 2023, BLS Jobs Revisions Were Negative 24 Out of 31 Times

Witness negative revisions 77 percent of the time, with more coming.

Anyone who says the labor market is strong is clueless. The economy is cooling rapidly.

This morning, I noted Government Shutdown Begins, Hundreds of Thousands Could Be Furloughed

There will not be economic reports from the BLS, BEA, or Census Department, for the near future. This could last quite some time.

Click on above link for details.

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